Research and Analysis

One problem in Afghanistan is the lack of research and understanding to guide overall engagement and development initiatives. TLO’s research and analysis section aims to fill this fundamental knowledge gap. Adhering to the do-no-harm philosophy, TLO undertakes thorough research of the ground context in given areas in order to understand community structures, decision-making and conflict resolution mechanisms, stakeholders and their sources of power (actor mapping),conflict-generating factors between individuals and groups (conflict mapping), local capacities for peace, existing service provision, economic realities, and the impact of Afghan government and international development and stability initiatives.
Additionally, we specialize in topic-specific research, including targeted conflict assessments (e.g., land and resource disputes, kuchi migration and settlement issues), studies of informal and formal justice systems, policy analysis and exploratory assessments of areas of strategic importance such as the Afghan districts bordering Pakistan.
We combine village-level surveys and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map tribal and ethnic composition, identify physical areas of conflict (e.g., contested streams, forests), chart migration routes for nomadic populations, zones of economic activity, and areas of relative security and insecurity. We produce:
Provincial and District Assessments: Working within the “Do-no-Harm” framework, TLO’s provincial assessments aim to increase the understanding among development actors of social, political, economic, security, and conflict dynamics. The Do-No-Harm methodology recognizes that, regardless of intent, assistance in conflict or post-conflict environments is not neutral in its impact. Aid projects and development gains that do not benefit the community as a whole can hinder reconciliation efforts, embolden spoilers, and re-ignite conflict. Understanding the local situation is a necessary first step to ensure that aid does not make a fragile situation worse. While we can tailor our focus to meet client needs, our provincial/district assessments generally include information and analysis on
  • The provincial/district context and community needs, especially in relation to the economy and service delivery;
  • Social structures (ethnic, religious, tribal), inter-group relations and power dynamics on a provincial- and district-level basis;
  • Governance, rule of law and security from the perspective of provincial/district residents;
  • Key actors (local, national and international) operating in the province/district, and the potential for ‘spoilers’ as well as ‘peacebuilders’;
  • The structural causes of violent conflict, conflict dynamics, and factors that could accelerate or decelerate conflict; and
  • Detailed recommendations on engagement for internal and external stakeholders.
Topic-specific research: Thematic studies and field assessments that provide external actors with an understanding of the local context so they can better craft engagement strategies. Topic-specific research has included reports on the following issues:
  • Land/resource conflicts and their impact on the local political economy and security environment;
  • The reach of state and non-state justices systems, and the linkages that exist between the two;
  • Internal displacement in southern Afghanistan and the prospects for durable solutions (conflict-induced IDPs; return policies);
  • Patronage systems and their influence on local politics in rural Afghanistan;
  • Local security arrangements and the dynamics of the traditional tribal policing body known as arbakai;
  • The reach and efficacy of various forms of media throughout the south and east and how external actors can craft effective communication strategies;
  • Context-specific conflict assessments;
  • The Afghan-Pakistan border districts, a baseline study of their political economy and security environment.
Project and program evaluations: Using community-level connections we conduct focus groups discussions and individual interviews with local stakeholders (beneficiaries and implementers) in order to evaluate reconstruction and development programmes, and assess the overall civil-military engagement strategies of international actors from the perspective of local communities, even in some of the most remote and volatile areas of Afghanistan (to be more general).